Our challenge was different—get high-level decision makers to understand that smallpox is a modern threat. We had a unique niche audience of several hundred government officials in ministries of public health and defense who are responsible for the health and safety of millions and therefore make business decisions to secure products, services and protections that serve the public. We had to navigate communications with this audience in a thoughtful and effective way. Given the sensitive topic of a deadly smallpox pandemic, we walked a fine line with our target audience to avoid inciting fear or inspiring bad actors.

Eradicated in 1980, smallpox has re-emerged as a modern threat. Highly contagious, it has a mortality rate of 30%. Intelligence communities have warned of smallpox being leveraged as a bioweapon. Most countries have vaccine stockpiles as their main mitigation, but between logistical complications and a limited window in which infected people can be vaccinated, their main countermeasure may not be enough to contain an outbreak. Our goal was to drive understanding of the modern threat of smallpox and educate ministries of health and defense on the need to invest in a more comprehensive response plan, as vaccines alone may not be enough to contain the virus. Government officials across ministries of public health and defense may not think of smallpox as a current threat compared to other more looming present threats. And even if they did, they feel prepared due to their vaccine stockpiles.

The smallpox simulator leverages current and past scientific data and visually generates how a modern smallpox outbreak may affect a countries population. Data sets used included a CDC Markov model as well as epidemiological finding from the COVID-19 pandemic. Current country maps and data including population density, social distancing habits, and vaccine hesitancy were also used to generate the response.

Our audience, top-ranking government health and military leaders, think they're fully prepared for a challenge they've never faced. So, we asked ourselves, how do we illustrate the potential threat of a weaponized strain of a disease that's been eradicated for 40 years without inciting fear or inspiring bad actors? With scientific data that allows them to experience a modern smallpox outbreak in a compelling and visceral way that involves their country and the people they protect.

The Smallpox Simulator is a web-base application that leverages historical CDC data on smallpox and current findings and data from the COVID-19 pandemic. The simulator runs a 120-day country-specific simulation that determines the rate of infection, the total number of deaths and trailing deaths (deaths occurring outside of 120-model timeframe). GDP impact, hospital bed capacity and a countries vaccine hesitancy are also determined. Data sources include an SEIR model to estimate impact of infectious diseases, a Markov model, census data, and relevant COVID-19 data. We modernized a 20-year-old CDC research paper into a contemporary Python data model. We incorporated new elements and issues commonplace in a post-pandemic world, like social distancing, into the original model, which never envisioned COVID-19. We animated a smallpox outbreak over 120 days across 22 countries using a GeoJSON-driven map interface. The data visualizations illustrate how quickly hospitals are overwhelmed, infections spread, and deaths accumulate.

The Smallpox Simulator accomplished 2 main objectives: 1) it showed officials what could happen in their home country, and 2) it showed that vaccines alone might not be enough to contain the outbreak. More than 500 government have been shown the simulator, including at several major world conferences including the NATO CBRN working group. At launch the simulator leveraged data from 10 countries but has now expanded to 22. Now, more and more governments can see how their own country might be impacted and can address their current level of preparedness based on results from the smallpox simulator. A detailed report of the results is also generated for sales reps to send to the respective governments. Besides data results the report also includes historical information about smallpox and the disease's lasting effects.